Israel did not conduct a single independent military operation in Syria after September 17, when Syrian air defenses mistakenly shot down a Russian Il-20 military aircraft. This is written by the German media and connects this fact with the supply of Damascus Russian anti-aircraft missile system S-300. on how the Russian complexes are actually deployed in the Arab Republic and what are the possible Israeli response actions.
Indeed, since the tragic incident, when Syrian air defenses shot down the Russian Il-20 during an Israeli air attack, Israel has not conducted a single military operation on the territory of the SAR, and therefore the German edition concluded that this lull is due to the deployment of Moscow air defense missile system -300 in the territory of the Arab Republic.
To begin with, we clarify the position of Tel Aviv. Some sources reported that the Israeli Air Force Command announced that it would carry out missile and air strikes only after coordination with Russia .
Such statements do not tally with the words of Israeli political figures. The authorities of this state refused to appeal to Russia with a request to notify Moscow in advance about the strikes of their air force against targets in the territory of the Syrian state. The head of the Defense Ministry of Israel Avigdor Lieberman said that the country’s defense army “does not intend to restrict the freedom of their actions,” writes the Times of Israel.
Now Israel is warning Russia about its missile and air strikes against targets in Syria a few minutes before they begin.The high-ranking Israeli military explains this by saying that if they inform the Russian side in advance, there may be a data leak and Syrian air defense and Iran’s armed forces will be prepared to respond to the attack in a timely manner . Back in October, Israeli Defense Minister Lieberman said that “in all that concerns our [Israeli] security interests, we cannot afford any compromises.”
Now we need to clarify who the Israelis are attacking in Syria. Bombardment, according to Tel Aviv, are Iranian armed groups that supply missiles to terrorist organizations that use this type of weapon against the civilian population of Israel. In addition, the Israeli Air Force by its actions suppresses the Iranian arms supplies to the Hezbollah grouping . Tehran’s actions in Syria are regarded by the Tel Aviv authorities as one of the most serious threats to the national security of their state.
Only one conclusion follows from this – the bombing is likely to continue, regardless of whether there is an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Syria or not.
Now we will deal with the combat capabilities of the Favorit ZRS, redeployed to this Arab Republic. There is reason to believe that a group of S-300PM-2 anti-aircraft missile battalions has been deployed in Syria as part of a system command post, a detection radar and two anti-aircraft missile battalions (anti-aircraft).
The exact number of launchers in each of the sdn unknown, but we can confidently say that their number is limited. In any case, the divisions in Syria are far from incomplete picking, that is, not 12 PUs for each.
One of the most important moments in this whole business is that at all workplaces of the S-300PM-2 srd group are presently Russian military personnel. The preparation of the Syrian calculations requires at least three months, and this weapon and military equipment have not yet been transferred to the Syrian air defense missile forces.
It is imperative to say a few words about the combat capabilities of the deployed divisions. The media has repeatedly cited data that the S-300 in Syria is capable of covering all objects within a radius of 250 km. That is, it is believed that two divisions can defend almost half of the territory of this Arab Republic.
In general, this is possible, but a number of clarifications are required to fully understand the situation. First, the zone of destruction of any anti-aircraft missile complex is highly dependent on the altitude of the target, and this is primarily due to the elementary laws of propagation of radio waves and the fact that the earth is not flat.
For example, the distant border of the affected area for S-300PM-2 may indeed be 250 km, but this will be only if the altitude of the air object is within 12-15 km. However, in modern armed conflicts, combat aircraft rarely fly at such heights. If, however, the altitude of the target is assumed to be 100 m, then the farthest limit of hitting the S-300 is only 25 km, but in reality, taking into account the terrain, it can be reduced to 14-16 km.
Most importantly, one should not categorically consider just one group of S-300 as a kind of sword, with which the Syrian military will beat off any enemy strike.
To this it is necessary to add that in the hands of poorly prepared and unqualified combat crews any, even the most modern equipment is nothing more than a pile of metal.
The S-300 ZRS fully justifies the expectations placed on it only when it is an element of a modern air defense system, including a layered anti-aircraft missile defense, represented by different types of systems, fighter aviation cover, radar reconnaissance system, EW equipment. Most importantly, such equipment must be staffed with qualified and motivated to win personnel.
That is, in order for the Syrian army to fight on equal terms with the Israel Defense Forces , it must be brought to the level of combat readiness and combat capability of the armed forces of Tel Aviv.
Is this really possible in principle – the question is extremely debatable. And if this is theoretically possible, in terms of weapons and military equipment, then the prepared and motivated personnel of the Syrian President Bashar Assad simply nowhere.
In the meantime, it is more likely that the following can be assumed: the rocket and air strikes of the Israeli Air Force against the Iranian and Hezbollah facilities in Syria will continue the presence of the S-300 group will most likely not affect this.
In addition, it should be noted that the S-300 will be perceived by Israel as an immediate threat to national securityAlthough it is unlikely that Tel Aviv will destroy this techniqueat least, as long as the Russian servicemen are in the Favorit’s workplaces.